Will climate change will increase CRIME? Warmer weather will cause murder, rape and robbery rates to soar, claims expert

  • Cambridge Massachusetts-based Abt Associates thinks the social cost of increased crime could reach $115billion in the U.S alone
  • Global warming could mean a two per cent increase in murders and a three per cent rise in cases of rape
  • Study says a four per cent increase in the size of the U.S. police force would be required to offset the  climate-related increase in crimes
PUBLISHED: 09:33 EST, 21 February 2014 | UPDATED: 10:10 EST, 21 February 2014
The environmental cost of climate change is well-documented but global warming could also bring with it a wave of crime, according to a new study.
One U.S. consulting firm has predicted that warmer weather will trigger more crimes, including murder and rape.
A Cambridge Massachusetts-based think tank claims the social cost of these changes could reach $115billion in the U.S. alone.
Research by one U.S. consulting firm has predicted that warmer weather will trigger more crimes, including murder and rape. Criminologists have long believed that some people are more inclined to get up to no good during spells of sunny weather
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Research by one U.S. consulting firm has predicted that warmer weather will trigger more crimes, including murder and rape. Criminologists have long believed that some people are more inclined to get up to no good during spells of sunny weather

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CRIME

The study claims that global warming could be responsible for an increase in crimes by 2099, including an additional:
  • 22,000 murders
  • 180,000 cases of rape
  • 1.2million aggravated assaults
  • 2.3million assaults
  • 260,000 robberies
  • 1.3million burglaries
  • 580,000 cases of vehicle theft
By the end of the century Matthew Ranson of Abt Associates believes climate change will be responsible for an extra 22,000 murders and 180,000 cases of rape, The Los Angeles Times reported.
 

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Counting from 2010, he also thinks that warmer weather will trigger an additional 1.2million aggravated assaults, 2.3million assaults, 260,000 robberies and 1.3 million burglaries, as well as 580,000 extra cases of vehicle theft.
In his study, published in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, he compared the number of crimes expected to occur during the same period if global warming predations do not prove true and the Earth remains at its current temperature.
By the end of the century Matthew Ranson of the firm believes climate change will be responsible for an extra 22,000 murders and 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2million aggravated assaults, 2.3million assaults, 260,000 robberies and 1.3 million burglaries (illustrated)
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By the end of the century Matthew Ranson of the firm believes climate change will be responsible for an extra 22,000 murders and 180,000 cases of rape, 1.2million aggravated assaults, 2.3million assaults, 260,000 robberies and 1.3 million burglaries (illustrated)
He found that global warming could mean a two per cent increase in murders and a three per cent rise in cases of rape.
Mr Ranson calculated the social costs of predicted the crime increases to be between $38billion and $115billion.
He said that while a one to three per cent increase in a certain type of crime may not sound like much, they would have a big impact on people’s lives and on the cost of law enforcement.
‘The broader context here is that climate change will influence our lives in a variety of ways beyond how much water we can spare for such things as farming,’ Mr Ranson said.
They study says that an immediate and permanent 4 per cent increase in the size of the U.S. police force (an LAPD policeman is pictured) would be required to offset the aggregate climate-related increases in murder and other crimes
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They study says that an immediate and permanent 4 per cent increase in the size of the U.S. police force (an LAPD policeman is pictured) would be required to offset the aggregate climate-related increases in murder and other crimes
‘There is reason to believe it will also impact social connections in our neighbourhoods, the amount of time we allow our children to spend outside and how much we are willing to spend on law enforcement,’ he added.
His research included looking at crime statistics and weather data for the U.S.’ 3,000 counties and he concluded that crime rates for most offenses by 2090 will rise by between 1.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent.
The study says that ‘an immediate and permanent four per cent increase in the size of the U.S. police force would be required to offset the aggregate climate-related increases in murder, manslaughter, robbery, burglary and vehicle theft likely to occur over the next century.